人口预测1950-2100

文章信息
作者： kaiwu
点击数：756
听了得到app，卓克.科技参考
088 人口1：剧烈波动的历史，提及《柳叶刀》（The Lancet）杂志2020年6月发表的一篇论文，预测了2100年的世界人口，找来看看，很有意思。
 
Vollset, S. E., Goren, E., Yuan, C.-W., Cao, J., Smith, A. E., Hsiao, T., Bisignano, C., Azhar, G. S., Castro, E., Chalek, J., Dolgert, A. J., Frank, T., Fukutaki, K., Hay, S. I., Lozano, R., Mokdad, A. H., Nandakumar, V., Pierce, M., Pletcher, M., … Murray, C. J. L. (2020). Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories from 2017 to 2100: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet, 396(10258), 1285–1306. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2
 
 
 
论文全文
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext
附录1

https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/attachment/6e4b1654-0659-429e-a974-a3eed5412a48/mmc1.pdf

附录2

population2017

 

population2100

 
数据分享
To download GBD data used in these analyses, please visit the Global Health Data Exchange GBD 2017 website. For more information on the data included in these analyses, see appendix 1, section 2.
Editorial note: the Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
 
程序代码（python）

http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2017/code

gbd2017A

gbd2017b


数据可视化

https://vizhub.healthdata.org/population-forecast/

世界人口结构变化1950-2100（2017年以后为预测值）

 
 
 
 
 
 
 中国人口结构变化1950-2100（2017年以后为预测值）

 

 

population1950China

 

 

population1978China

 

 

population2000China

 

 

population2017China

 

population2050China

 

 

population2100China

dataset:

https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/

Wang, L. R., Xueqing. (2024, May 1). China’s Population Could Shrink to Half by 2100. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-population-could-shrink-to-half-by-2100/